2-Foul Participation In 1st Half

Analytical Analysis

2-Foul Participation Rates (2FLr) is the percentage of time a starter with two fouls in the first half has been allowed to play. For example. If a player picks up their second foul with 10:00 to play in the first half, and plays one minute after that, their 2FLr would be 10%. The player would have 10 minutes available to play with two fouls, and by playing one of those minutes, 10% of the available time was used.

The idea of the 2FLr was first broken down and recorded by Ken Pomeroy on his Advanced Analysis of College Basketball site. Additionally, I have enjoyed reading Nicholas Canova at cbbanalytics.com. His article from October of 2022, A Deep Dive Into Foul Rates & 2-Foul Participation is informative reading if you want a deep dive into the analytics behind the question of whether or not to bench a player once they pick up their second foul in the first half.

A player's effectiveness is reduced due to foul trouble. A player with two fouls in the first half will play more conservative similar to a player who picks up their fourth foul late in the second half. Still, playing that player with two fouls in the first half might be better than your bench alternatives, especially if that player isn't prone to picking up another foul in that situation. But, how do you know this? By understanding their 2FLr, you give yourself a more informed approach to making this call.

Jordan Sperber has a term called "Auto Bench." If a coach routinely benches a player with two fouls in the first half , then relatively speaking, that player is in foul trouble after their first foul. They are one foul away from fouling out in the first half. I think it's worth studying, especially if team depth is a weakness and your team struggles in moments early in a game (first half) when you have to rely on your bench.

Based on what I've been reading, during the 2021-22 season, 15 Division I men's teams had a 2FLr of >/= 50% (players with two fouls played at least half of the remaining minutes in the first half with two fouls)... only 15. The Division I average was 23.1%. There was a wide range among Division I men's programs from 2% - 66% 2FLr. Also interesting was how positions affected whether or not coaches played players with 2 fouls early. Point guards had 2FLr of 30.3% compared to centers who averaged a 2FLr of 15.7%

While none of the above studies show any obvious evidence as to whether a coach should be conservative or aggressive in determining first half minutes for a players with two fouls, I do think the following has been learned:

1. A player is more likely to foul out if they pick up their second foul in the first 10 minutes of play. While this may come across as a "no duh" statement, as coaches, we need to pay heed to when a player gathers their second foul.

2. Another statement that seems obvious once read, but is not often thought about in the moment: by playing a player with two fouls in the first half, you are allowing that player to average more minutes played throughout the course of that particular game. Only the coach can determine if those minutes are worth the risk.

3. A coach needs to evaluate various avenues to help with increasing a player's 2FLr. Should you change defenses, should you change personnel matchups, or can you switch on all or certain personnel? A coach may find that he or she is able to play more players with two fouls in the first half if they mitigate some risk by playing zone during those times. Couple your decision to play a player with two fouls with one of the above options.