This past year demonstrates great parity in college basketball. Let’s apply simple math to this: take each year’s Final Four teams (men’s) and get the sum of the seed rankings. For example: this year’s Final Four the Seed Sum is 23. Connecticut was a 4 seed, San Diego State was a 5 seed, Miami was a 5 seed, and Florida Atlantic was a 9 seed. 4 + 5 + 5 + 9 = 23. In contrast, in 2008 when Kansas defeated Memphis for the NCAA title, the Seed Sum of the Final Four was 4. All #1 seeds made the Final Four. If we use the Seed Sum, it begins to tell us which NCAA Final Four was comprised of the “Blue Bloods” and which Final Four was truly a balanced representation of college basketball, low-major, mid-major, high-major labels aside.
Since 2000, this past season’s Final Four was the second-highest Seed Sum in the history of the seeded NCAA Tournament (1978 or 1979, depending how you interpret it). The highest Seed Sum Final Four was in 2011, Connecticut was a 3 seed, Butler was an 8 seed, Kentucky was a 4 seed, and VCU was an 11 seed, for a Seed Sum of 26. In 2000, the Seed Sum was 21, with Michigan State as a 1 seed, Florida as a 5 seed, North Carolina as an 8 seed, and Wisconsin was also an 8 seed.
Before I write why I think this means more parity in college basketball, let’s ensure understanding on a few things first.
I hate the labels that exist in college basketball (regardless of level). For example, I was an Assistant Coach at Valdosta State University from 2015-2017. During the 2016-17 season, we won 26 games. We won the Gulf South Conference (as good as some Division 1 conferences), and went to the NCAA South Regional as a 2 seed. That team had several players that went on to legitimate professional basketball careers, making serious money. VSU is a NCAA Division II program. A (D2) program that has 12,000 students on campus, palm trees everywhere on campus, and an arena that holds 6,000. We were D2, but we were as Mid-Major Division 1 as a D2 could get!
Princeton upset Arizona this year. Princeton is in the Ivy League. Princeton as well as all other Ivy League programs do not offer athletic grant-in-aid (scholarships). Princeton surely is a low-major program, I mean no scholarships, right? Meanwhile, Arizona is considered a ”Blue Blood” program of high-major caliber. To quote Bill Raftery,
”Not so fast my friends.”
Let’s go back to 2018. University of Maryland Baltimore County became the first 16 seed to defeat a 1 seed. UMBC is like those schools with directions in their name (East, West, North, South) or those schools with hypens in their name…. cue Bill Raftery again.
Just because you belong to a high-major, power-5, conference doesn’t mean you have a high-major, power-5 team. Adversely, just because you belong to a low-major or mid-major conference, doesn’t mean you are a low-major or mid-major team (cough, cough, FAU and Conference USA). I saw the Atlantic Sun Conference Championship game this past season in-person. Kennesaw State vs. Liberty was worth the admission price, the 7 hour drive, and the hotel cost. Kennesaw State, supposedly a low major team, gave Xavier all they wanted in round one this year. Oh, and by the way, have you been on Liberty’s campus? Every aspect of it screams “high-major or power-5.”
Teams representing the Big East, Conference USA, West Coast Conference, Mountain West, ACC, and the Big 12 comprised this year’s Final Four. Pay attention to who wasn’t there: the Big 10, the SEC, and the Pac 12.
Reasons Why There Is More Parity
The fear of NIL deals and the Transfer Portal making the rich richer, hasn’t proven to be true at all. In fact, it seems to have the opposite effect, bringing the lower level, non-power broker schools to a competitive par with the big boys.
The days of “one & done” recruiting are fading fast. Schools such as Kentucky and Duke pioneered the “one & done” model, then perfected it. They enjoyed the production of great players for a single year before those select few were drafted away to NBA-land. The Transfer Portal is in large part why. With the ability to make Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) money, players are staying around longer because the lure of average sums of money in Luxembourg or Turkey isn’t appealing as average sums of money in their own college town right here in the good ole’ U S of A. Players staying in college longer, means older, more experienced teams. Teams with experience have learned to deal with adversity in a game, several times over. Sixteen of the projected 20 starters in this year’s Final Four were at their respective school during the 2021-22 season. Whereas, four and five-star Freshman are still learning (often reluctantly) that they have a whole lot more basketball to learn, especially defensively.
The Transfer Portal is allowing teams to shape up their roster fast, rather than wait for players to develop over time. Put yourself in the shoes of a Division 1 Head Coach. Would you take the high school kid that will help you by January of his sophomore year, or the transfer from an ACC school that averaged 11 PPG against the best competition in the country. It’s microwaveable roster management. Set the timer for one portal recruiting season, and *BING…. your team is hot and ready.
*Caution* could be controversial!
We are starting to see a changing of the guard in the coaching ranks. Coaches in their 60’s didn’t sign up to spend time re-recruiting players on their current roster in order to prevent them from entering the transfer portal. Whereas, younger coaches are willing to acknowledge the current state of things, even leaning into it, using the Portal to their advantage. Within the last few years, we have seen Roy Williams, Jay Wright, Jim Boeheim, and Mike Krzyzewski retire, all well into their 60’s, some in their 70’s. The uncertainty of their roster from year-to-year is creating a “Gone are the good-ole-days” attitude among those who are long in the coaching tooth. Younger coaches will be getting Division 1 head jobs, with the energy and understanding of how to manipulate the portal to their program’s advantage, creating the likelihood of another Florida Atlantic playing in the Final Four sooner than later.
So applying the Seed Sum to this year’s Final Four allows us to see that there is more parity in college basketball than ever before.